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French

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10670/1.5b6ufj

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Labour costs and exports: analyses based on company data

Abstract

This study aims to measure the impact of labour costs on the competitiveness of French companies, as measured by the propensity to export. Three reforms aimed at alleviating the cost of labour are being exploited: (I) the 2015 accountability pact; (II) the CICE; and the general reliefs of 1995, known as the Juppé reliefs. None of the analyses carried out reveal any positive effects on exports of lower labour costs. The 2015 Liability Pact (RP15) introduced a 1,8 point reduction in the social contribution rate for family allowances on wages of less than 1,6 Smic. On a set of companies exposed in a similar way to the CICE, we compare companies that are more or less affected by the liability pact. No effects are detected on international trade variables (export value, extended margin, unit value). Some specifications suggest an effect on employment, total sales and value, but these effects remain sensitive to the reference year used and are not considered robust. On the other hand, it appears to be robust that, outside the manufacturing sector, a large share of the fall in labour costs was reflected in the margin rate (as measured by the ratio of gross operating surplus to sales). It should be noted that these consulates are obtained from a particular sample of companies, which do not differ in terms of exposure to CICE or general reductions in contributions. In addition, the analysis highlights the role of outsourcing certain services, which is likely to introduce a bias in the real shock to the cost of labour represented by RP15. Although informative on the links between labour costs and companies’ performance, the results of this study should be interpreted as correlations rather than as causal effects. Indeed, the trajectories of the companies treated over the pre-treatment period are slightly different from those of the companies that are part of the control group. The CICE analysis confirms that the CICE has no significant effect on exports between 2013 and 2017. This analysis is a mere extension of Malgouyres and Mayer (2018) to the 2016s and 2017s. In addition, using a close specification, we analyse the effects on the 2016 liability pact, which extended the reduction in the social contribution rate for family benefits by 1,8 points on wages below 3,5 Smic. We have no effect on exports. However, in view of the slight decline in time, we do not consider this lack of identified effect to be very informative.The analysis highlights the positive and significant effects of Ristourne Juppé II on the performance of businesses, according to orders of magnitude broadly comparable to the crepon and Desplatz results (2001). However, the effects on international trade variables are not significant. Thus, even though within the manufacturing sector, generalised reductions in employers’ contributions seem to be strongly correlated with job creation/retention and value added, the analysis does not show a positive effect on international competitiveness. While (i) labour costs and export performance are strongly negatively correlated (see e.g. Decramer et al., 2016; Malgouyres and Mayer, 2018), (ii) that some work points to the responsiveness of export prices and values to changes in certain production costs (such as electricity, see Fonde et al., 2017), this report does not allow for the identification of a correlation between a particular source of change in labour costs (exemptions from social security contributions) and international competitiveness.

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