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Abstract
Unabated coal power in India must be phased out by mid-century to achieve global climate targets under the Paris Agreement. Here we estimate the costs of hybrid power plants - lithium-ion battery storage with wind and solar PV - to replace coal generation. We design least cost mixes of these technologies to supply baseload and load-following generation profiles in three Indian states - Karnataka, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu. Our analysis shows that availability of low cost capital, solar PV installation costs of $<$\$300/kW, and battery storage capacity costs of $<$\$75/kWh will be required to phase out existing coal power plants. Phaseout by 2040 requires a 5% annual decline in the cost of hybrid systems over the next two decades. Solar PV is more suited to pairing with short duration storage than wind power. Our results describe the challenging technological and policy advances needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.