GoTriple - A human-driven decline in global burned area

authors

Contributors

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC),

Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS) ; University of California [Irvine] (UCI) ; University of California-University of California,

Department of Geographical Sciences ; University of Maryland [College Park] ; University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System,

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW) ; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU),

Division of Marine Science and Conservation, Nicholas School of the Environment ; Duke University [Durham],

Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology ; Columbia University [New York],

Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU) ; Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT),

Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M) ; Max-Planck-Gesellschaft,

Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering ; Oregon State University (OSU),

Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F) ; Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung ; Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association,

Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] (IAP) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS),

Department of Physics [Imperial College London] ; Imperial College London,

Climate Research Division [Toronto] ; Environment and Climate Change Canada,

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE) ; Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ),

European Project: 603445,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,BACCHUS(2013),

European Project: 603542,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,LUC4C(2013)

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Publisher

HAL CCSD,

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Abstract

International audience Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.