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Exchange Rate Misalignment and Capital Flight from Botswana: A Cointegration Approach with Risk Thresholds

Abstract

this study examines the impact of exchange rate misalignment on capital flight to Botswana over the period 1980-2015. The study uses the co-integration approach based on the autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Granger causation approach by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The misalignment of Botswana’s currency was caused by current account imbalances. The main determinant of Botswana’s capital flight is the opening of trade, indicating that exportable products are poorly invoiced, leading to net capital outflows. Our main findings show that in the long run, when the currency is overvalued, the volume of capital flight through misinvoicing of trade decreases and the increase in foreign exchange reserves does not reduce capital flight on exit. However, when the currency is undervalued, the volume of capital flight through misinvoicing of trade increases and foreign exchange reserves reduce capital flight on exit. Investors respond more to the prospects for devaluation than to inflation. Botswana should tolerate an overassessment of the Pula not exceeding 5 %. When the Pula is overvalued above 5 %, capital flight increases significantly. The government needs to develop trade regulations and monitor imported and exported products. Botswana should also implement capital controls to limit capital traffic and maintain monetary autonomy.

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