Abstract
In the framework of a research project, and as a follow-up to previous work, work is being carried out to compare land use change simulation models, with the aim of drawing conclusions on the main thematic and methodological developments that can be drawn from their use. The first results obtained from an Area-test in the Region of Murcia of approximately 2 300 km² are presented here. The land use maps of the Corine Land Cover 1990 and 2000 project have been used for the calibration phase (t0 and t1) and for simulation of the results (T) in 2006. The descriptive and explanatory variables used come from different official sources and databases and are transformed into factors or restrictions on land cover categories and transitions detected in the calibration phase. The TIGS tools used (Land Change Modeller, CA_MARKOV) are included in the IDRISI 16 software, taïga version. The aim is to be able to understand the advantages and limitations of these models and to compare the specificity of each model at the calibration phase (estimation and location of changes, methods for transforming variables).