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Article

Spanish

ID: <

10670/1.khyxd6

>

Where these data come from
Economic cycles in Mexico: identification, depth and duration

Abstract

Summary This document aims to identify through the filters Hodrik-Prescott (HP) and Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) the economic cycles in Mexico from 1993/01 to 2017/04; it also sets out its duration, depth, volatility and correlation with consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports and imports. This was done by using seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series at 2013 prices in millions of pesos. Cycles were obtained by distinguishing between the observed series and its trend, using values 1600 and 1096 as smoothing factors (for HP filter). In this way, three cycles, complete cycles, three recessions and two crises were identified in 24 years. The size and duration of the cycles, particularly in their recessionary phase, demonstrates that macroeconomic policy (fiscal and monetary) has not been efficient in its task of keeping GDP close to its trend and should therefore be redesigned to contribute to both short-term stability and long-term growth.

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