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French

ID: <

10670/1.mkn7ra

>

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More of the Same : An Unpredictable Trump Foreign Policy in an Unpredictable Central Asia

Abstract

While both the foreign policy outlook of the Trump administration and the international affairs of Central Asian states seem to be defined by unpredictability, this article claims that the US relations with the region are unlikely to change significantly. Such forecast might seem surprising, but Trump’s predecessors have done what many suspect the current occupant of the White house might be considering – namely, turning a blind eye to the abysmal human rights record of Central Asian governments to ensure their support for US anti-terrorism operations, while drawing down of American commitments to the region. Thus, the current lack of clarity about the outlines of American foreign policy in the region appears to be the norm rather than an aberration in US-Central Asian relations. In this setting, the analysis suggests that it is not the bilateral interactions between Washington and the Central Asian capitals that are likely to shape the longer-term trajectories of US foreign policy in the region, but Washington’s relations with other international actors – in particular, Russia, China, and Iran. Thus, even in a part of the world accustomed to unpredictability, it is difficult to deduce what the future implications of American foreign policy in Central Asia are likely to be.

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