test
Search publications, data, projects and authors

Free full text available

Article

French

ID: <

10670/1.pmecbg

>

Where these data come from
: perspectives 2013-2104

Abstract

the Great Recession continues for the fifth consecutive year. From 2010 to 2013, the fiscal efforts made and announced by developed countries were unprecedented, with the aim of rapidly reducing deficits. However, in a context of high multipliers, the fiscal effort has a cost in terms of activity. Overlooked for too long, this mechanism has led to expectations of reducing public deficits being always disappointed. In 2013 and then in 2014, all developed countries will therefore continue the fiscal consolidation effort, despite the high level of involuntary unemployment. As fiscal multipliers remain high, developed countries will turn into the vicious circle of rising unemployment, a protracted recession and growing doubts about the sustainability of public finances. The continuation of this fiscal austerity strategy is leading to wage deflation in the most affected countries. The structural reforms imposed by the Troika, such as cutting the salaries of civil servants, indicate that this deflation is not sustained, but encouraged, with the aim of restoring the competitiveness of countries in crisis. However, since the euro area is a fixed exchange area, this wage deflation can only be passed on to other countries. A new lever will be activated by which the crisis will prolong. When salaries decrease, access to the financial system to smooth the choices of economic agents becomes impossible. The debts that have been sought to be reduced since the beginning of the crisis will be assessed in real terms. Debt deflation will become the new vector of the crisis trap.

Your Feedback

Please give us your feedback and help us make GoTriple better.
Fill in our satisfaction questionnaire and tell us what you like about GoTriple!