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Article

French

ID: <

10670/1.vsvrsz

>

Where these data come from
Geopolitics of the energy transition

Abstract

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference ended with a unanimously-approved “framework agreement” that is politically – but not legally – binding. This collective awareness shall not obscure the fact that the energy transition faces a wide variety of historical, economic and geographical situations ; and that it is not only based on an environmental goal, but also on three other pillars : societal, political and economic. High oil prices mean growth for the Russians but stagnation or recession for Europeans. When the United States produce shale gas and cause the collapse of coal prices, coal is absorbed by the most advanced European countries in renewable energy in disregard of their reduced emissions. Can rich countries, that growth is at half mast, fund the eventual transition of fast-growing emerging countries in the name of the past ? Besides, if a global energy order sounds idealistic, it is equally naive to believe in the loyalty of the Nation-States. Only by creating regional confederations that rationally shape their energy destiny will a successful transition be achieved. As such, the transition should be treated and seen as a deliberate evolution and not as an incurred revolution.

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