Martínez-Santos P, Llamas R, Martínez-Alfaro P (2008) Environ Modell Softw 23:1145–1162

[EN] Participatory methods provide an increasingly accepted path to integrated water assessment. This research describes an interdisciplinary exercise of scenario design and modelling, which provides a methodology to couple hard science numerical modelling approaches with the involvement of key water actors and socioeconomic issues. A decision support system based on probabilistic methods (Bayesian networks) is the tool chosen for dealing with the interdisciplinary issues involved in this aquifer. Given the long-standing conflicts in the area, modelling work largely focuses on carrying out an impact assessment produced by different scenarios established under the light of the mandatory objectives established by the European Union Water Framework Directive. This methodology is applied to a semi-arid aquifer located in SE Spain (Serral-Salinas) that represents an extreme case of intensive groundwater use. Irrigation has been a catalyst for welfare in the area for the past 40 years, despite the resulting large groundwater drawdown and continuous rise of groundwater pumping energy costs. Modelling results suggest that only a drastic change in the abstraction regime can produce a solution to long term sustainability of the aquifers. In addition, the impact assessment advises that such objectives are unlikely to be met due to the high economic costs of this action. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. The authors gratefully acknowledges the contributions of the following people and organizations: Prof. Marino from the Land, Water and Air department of University California-Davis (UCD) for his help during the visit at UCD in 2009 and his contributions for this study; Spanish, Danish and English partners of the NEWATER project, for their cooperation with Geological Survey of Spain (IGME) and with this research; the OUCE for its great support during the academic visit of the first author; Segura River Basin Authority (CHS) for its cooperation with Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), all the stakeholders who have collaborated in this research and finally the commercial package HUGIN that was the software used for this study. The authors gratefully lacknowledge the interest and economic support from Euromediterranean Water Institute (Murcia Region, Spain), aimed to the continuation and future development of these research lines. 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Molina JL, García-Aróstegui JL (2006) Intensive aquifers exploitation its impacts: a case study in Serral-Salinas (Murcia-Alicante). Boletín Geológico y Minero 117:597–599 Molina JL, García-Aróstegui JL (2007) Identificación preliminar de impactos del uso intensivo del agua subterránea en el sureste español: Acuífero Serral-Salinas (Murcia-Alicante). Boletín Geológico y Minero 118:597–599

Molina JL, García-Aróstegui JL (2006) Intensive Aquifers exploitation its impacts: a case study in Serral-Salinas (Murcia-Alicante). Geological and Mining Bulletin 117: 597-599 Molina JL, García-Aróstegui JL (2007) Preliminary identification of impacts of the intensive use of groundwater in south-east Spain: Serral-Salinas aquifer (Murcia-Alicante). Geological and Mining Bulletin 118: 597-599

Integrated Assessment of the European WFD Implementation in Extremely Overexploited Aquifers Through Participatory Modelling

Abstract