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http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/185589

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Congolese conjunctures 2016. Political slippage, economic decline

Abstract

2016, a year which was expected to be crucial not only because, under the Congolese constitution, it had to clear the sixteen years of rule of President Joseph Kabila, but also because a large part of the opposition and Congolese civil society had called for Kabila to leave by 19 December 2016 at the latest, if needed by force. Since then, nothing has actually happened in this direction. There was no long-awaited alternation. Kabila has remained in power and continues to strengthen divisions within the Congolese political opposition. Time will have been the main ally of the Presidential Majority, who gained it thanks to the political dialogues that were no longer concluded. It was then sufficient for the Constitutional Court to interpret Article 70 of the Constitution in the sense that, in the event of failure to hold elections, it would be for the President-in-Office to continue to exercise power. But 2016 was also the year of major political difficulties, the majority of which is still far from recovering today: these are mainly the schisms she has known and which have been at the root of the political opposition of some of her great tenors. It remains deeply weakened despite the fact that it was not mentioned enough towards the end of 2016, while the main focus of the spotlight was on the Congolese opposition. More seriously, 2016 saw the gradual collapse of some positive economic and social transformations that were the main achievements of the Congolese government, as we reported in 2015. Indeed, economic fluctuations in the DRC have had negative consequences of a slowdown in economic growth. While these problems were the basis for the decrease in the budget forecasts adopted for 2016, they predicted negative effects compared to progress in the social field as well as difficulties in financing the ongoing electoral process. Finally, the problem of alternance posed mainly by 2016 in the DRC remains: until when will this illegitimate situation on the part of the institutions continue and at what cost?

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