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The Effect of Oil Revenue on The Fertility Pattern in Iran 1952-1976 (Economy)


Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1984. Using data from the 1976 census, this study investigates the relationship between the distribution of oil revenue and fertility patterns across the Iranian provinces. Counter to expectation based on the experience of developed nations, in Iran the increase of oil revenue from 1952 to 1975 was not accompanied by a decline in the fertility rate. At the theoretical level, this study is based on modified transition theory: a new version of the demographic transition theory stating that components of development (regardless of the type of development) tend to depress the fertility pattern. To identify possible determinants of fertility behavior, the following hypotheses were tested through multiple regression and path analysis techniques. It is hypothesized that: (1) developmental factors such as urbanization, high school or higher education of females, types of occupation and female labor force participation, have a direct negative impact on fertility across the provinces of Iran; (2) The developmental variables have an indirect negative effect on fertility through the mean age at first marriage; (3) mean age at first marriage has a direct negative effect on fertility; and (4) in the provinces (Central, Khuzestan, Esfahan, E. Azarbijan) where large amounts of oil revenue was allocated, the fertility rate is lower than the fertility rate in other provinces here small amounts of oil revenue were distributed. Results of the multiple regression are consistent with H1 and H3. However, among developmental variables high school and college education of females aged 15-29 as well as mean age at first marriage of females, or, lower proportion of married females age 20-24 were found to be important factors in depressing the fertility rate. The results of the path model provide support for H2 and H4 and show the interrelationships between the endogenous and exogenous variables. The path model indicates that the effect of oil revenue on the fertility pattern across the provinces is not direct. Implication of the findings for developmental theory are discussed. U of I Only Restricted to the U of I community idenfinitely during batch ingest of legacy ETDs

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