Article
English
ID: <
oai:doaj.org/article:7a17dc3cc613420d8b95aa3c7b354508>
Abstract
The overall models of the Fourth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) are assessed for the North East of Brazil (NEB) as the representation of interannual and intercadal precipitation variability for the period 1901-1999 and the projections of scenario A1B are analysed. This assessment is carried out using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data and the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 review of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The transformed into ondeletes is applied to the data series to detect and analyse the variability patterns existing in the 20th century. The results suggest that the models CSIRO_MK3_0_RUN2, GISS_MODEL_E_R_R_RUN8 and UKMO_HADCM3_RUN1 have satisfactorily replicated the multi-annual variability. Models differ as to the future of precipitation in the NEB, some indicate positive impacts on the annual average of up to 12 % and other negative impacts of up to 42 %.