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Article

Portuguese

ID: <

oai:doaj.org/article:9abf17744a244729907fdc9b9a2b294e

>

·

DOI: <

10.26848/rbgf.v12.1.p057-070

>

Where these data come from
Seasonal precipitation prognosis for the southern summer and autumn in the Eastern Amazon

Abstract

Esta pesquisa é uma contribuição científica aos estudos de modelagem estatística, particularmente para a Amazônia oriental, com o objetivo de desenvolver um modelo estatístico de prognóstico sazonal para a região. Utilizou-se o método da regressão linear tendo como variável dependente a precipitação das estações do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e como variável explicativa a Temperatura da Superfície do Mar dos oceanos adjacentes a América do Sul. As melhores correlações entre a precipitação e a TSM ocorrem nas áreas do Pacífico Tropical, Pacifico Leste e o Atlântico Subtropical Norte. O modelo desenvolvido através do método de regressão linear, para a Amazônia oriental, mostrou boa acurácia, pois os dados previstos acompanharam os dados observados no verão e outono austral. Além disso, obteve-se resultados satisfatórios tanto no coeficiente de determinação quanto no índice de Willmott, estes apontaram para uma boa capacidade de previsão e grau de acerto do modelo, e ainda baixo erro demonstrado a partir do erro percentual absoluto médio.    A B S T R A C T The transport sector is an important emitter of polluting gases to the atmosphere, mainly due to the use of fossil fuels in its energy matrix. In the face of incentive to credit in the last administrations of the federal government and the scrapping of public transport, the vehicular fleet of Brazilian cities has grown exponentially and with these emissions of harmful gases. In Manaus, Amazonas state capital, this phenomenon also replied. Therefore, this study aimed to model the air quality from the emission site gases of urban mobility and analyze the spatiotemporal behavior of pollutants in order to provide a beacon instrument in the construction of public policies aiming at social welfare. The model adopted was the TAPM, considered suitable for meso-scale simulations in three dimensions. This model contains a global meteorological base, with orographic information, among others, required for the initial applications of the modeling and feded with the estimations of emissions calculated by the authors based on the IPCC protocols. The results show a behavior for all pollutants dispersion, as expected, following the atmospheric circulation, with the exception of particulate matter, whose trajectory is inversely. The hourly pollutant distribution is consistent with the heavy traffic of vehicles, especially in peak periods and with weather conditions in the region. In this way, one could say that the tropospheric ozone, highly impactful gas on human health, runs through heavily populated areas of Manaus, moving out of the urban area towards the Negro river (East-West). Keywords: Atmospheric pollution; Urban mobility; Local Effect Gases; Ozone Tropospheric.

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