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Article

English

ID: <

oai:doaj.org/article:9ee5cd2025b2480a8bb784a09ea10036

>

·

DOI: <

10.5327/Z2176-947820200624

>

Where these data come from
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS ON PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN BRAZILIAN RIVER BASIN DISTRICTS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

Abstract

In order to obtain information on the possible impacts on the rainfall regime and the temperature regime in the Brazilian river basin districts as a result of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, this work aimed at analysing the projections resulting from nine participating models of the Coordinated Regional Climate downscaling Experiment (COR-), considering the scenarios representing concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 for the 21st century. The models used were: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis – Canadian Earth System Model (The second generation) (CCCma-CanESM2), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (version Mk3-6-0) (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0), Irish Centre for High End Computing – European Community – EARTH (ICHEC-EC-EARTH), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace – 5 Component Models version A – Medium Resolution (IPSL-CMSA-MR), model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5), Hadley Center Global Environment Model version 2 – Earth System (HadGEM2-ES), Max Planck Institute – Meteorology – Earth System Model (MPIM-ESM), Norwegian Climate Centre – Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 – Medium resolution (NCC-NorESM1-M) and National Oceanic and Atmosphere eric Administration – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – Earth System Model version 2M (NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M). Anomalies and trends in annual average precipitation and temperature fields in the period 2006 to 2095 were analysed. All models have projected temperature increases in all regions. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the temperature anomaly indicated an increase of up to 1.58 °C in the Amazon River Basin District. Precipitation can also increase in some river basin districts. The median of the anomalies suggested increases of between 10 and 30 % in the East Atlantic, Western North-East Atlantic. North-East Atlantic, Paraguay, Parnaíba, Tocantins-Araguaia and San Francisco. Negative anomalies were identified in the south-east and mainly in southern Brazil, indicating reductions in rainfall. The Mann-Kendall-Sen test suggested a possible intensification of the annual rainfall regime in most river basin districts except those in the South Atlantic, Paraná and Uruguay. In both scenarios, the test pointed to a lack of trend in the South Atlantic region by most models. All templates submitted significant positive trend for temperature in both scenarios and in all regions. The largest and lowest warming trends were observed in the north and south of the country respectively.

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