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Collective Treatment of States' External Debt
Le traitement collectif de la dette extérieure des États trouve sa raison d’être dans la récurrence des crises de la dette souveraine et l’échec de solutions individuelles. En effet, si celles-ci ne sont pas nouvelles, leur répétition au fil des années les rend toujours d’actualité et leur gestion,...
Economic catching-up and monetary integration of Central and Eastern European countries
This research investigates the challenges of price level catching-up for macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern European transition countries seeking to enter the Euro area. In this respect, an equilibrium real exchange rate model suggests that the process of real appreciation observed along...
Financial crisis, inflation and Currency Board in Bulgaria: lessons from an indiscriminate transition
The main features of the transition in Bulgaria since 1991, highlighting the formation of two broad “financial pyramids” that led to the 1996-1997 crisis. A first phase, from January to September 1996, was dominated by an open banking crisis; then, a public finance crisis followed, due to inflated i...
Emerging Countries' External Debt: How Should One Neutralize Hard-Currency Volatility? (en collaboration avec P. Laurent, N. Meunier, L. Miotti, V. Seltz)
International audience
Trade liberalization, economic integration and globalization
The world trade plays an increasingly important role in countries’ economic evolutions as it has been demonstrated by appearance of the concept of globalization. The occurrence of economic crises modifies the content of commercial relationships. Some aspects of trade liberalization and economic inte...
The principal, the staff member and the reporting officer: how to explain the failure of the IMF in Argentina?
the Independent Evaluation Office (OIE), established three years ago within the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published in mid-summer 2004 a remarkable report on the institution’s work in Argentina in 1 during the Currency Board period — this excessively rigid monetary regime, adopted following...
Disinflation through monetary policy or disinflation through exchange rate policy?
countries with too high inflation rates can use either of the two policies: reduce money growth (disinflation through monetary policy), or stop the depreciation of their parity (exchange-rate disinflation). In the past, the former has been more effective than the latter, which has often led to a dec...
Predict banking crises: a robust alert system
An early warning system aims to predict banking crises in 48 countries from 1977 to 2010. A Bayesian approach provides robust forecasts. The growth of banking activity and credit, the degree of financial liberalisation and the weight of external debt are decisive signals of banking crises. Predictio...
6. What are the causes and consequences of a default on government debt?
this article looks at the issue of sovereign defaults on external debt. Two main issues were discussed. The first relates to the conditions which may lead a State to default. Important factors are adverse international shocks, investors’ self-realisation expectations and excessive private debt may l...
The outboard and the TGV: a controversy on compensation for biodiversity damage
Biodiversity offsets consist for developers in repaying a debt created by the impacts of their projects, after having avoided and reduced them as much as possible. Nevertheless, the actual implementation of these offsets is subject to uncertainty regarding their effectiveness an...
State of the art: the root causes of irregular migration in the Rabat Process region
Lucie Bacon and Nelly Robin achieved in May 2018 a state of art on “The root causes of irregular migration in the Rabat Process region”. This overview of existing productions on the “root causes” of “irregular migration” suggests rethinking the design underlying the Global Approach to Migration impl...
Financial impact of the stabilisation and structural adjustment programme on productive sectors (1991-1993)
The signature by the Egyptian government in May and November 1991 of two economic stabilisation and structural adjustment agreements with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank is the result of the policy of openness initiated in 1974 and the economic imbalances it created: an increase i...
Governance, ethics of the maker and macroeconomic dynamics in the Currency Board regime: the case of Djibouti
This communication looks at the djiboutien currency board regime. We stress the conditions for its emergence and stability after independence. It is true that this system has the advantage of relying on a monetary rule limiting economic policy abuses. It introduces a development dynamic based not on...
Public debt and private investment the case of Turkey
‘titrebSummary’/titrebThe effect of debt on private investment is theoretically undetermined. Indeed, according to theory, the link between debt and private investment can be both negative (crowding out effect) and positive (accelerating effect on economic growth and thus on private investment). Thi...
Introduction
in the years of North-South relations, 1983 will probably not be among the “big years”. Many third world countries have suffered from the extraordinarily difficult conditions affecting their external economic relations: commodity prices at their lowest level since the Second World War, rising protec...
The outboard and the TGV: a controversy over biodiversity offsets
The principle of compensation for biodiversity damage is for planners to repay their residual biodiversity “debt” consisting of the impacts of their project, after they have implemented actions to avoid and minimise these impacts. However, the actual implementation of these compensations is responsi...