Post-2014 Afghanistan Wargame Analysis

The Afghanistan Futures Wargame conducted 14-15 January 2014 brought together specialists with expertise on Afghanistan, China, India, Iran and Pakistan, international relations and national security affairs from academia, government and private think-tanks to consider U.S. policy options for Afghanistan beyond 2014. The overarching finding of this wargame is that, except for the issues associated with ungoverned space, the United States has relatively few national interests in Afghanistan going forward. U.S. national interests in Pakistan are greater than those in Afghanistan, and are centered on non-use, nonproliferation and security of Pakistan s nuclear arsenal, combined with concern over internal stability and the presence of Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs). Future U.S. policy toward Afghanistan should be adjusted to match these interests, should seek opportunities for cooperation where the interests of other stakeholders converge with U.S. interests and should be part of a broader regional, less military-centric policy. An important focus of the wargame was to identify the factors experts took into account (See pages 6-7.) to develop options for senior leaders to consider. Based on these factors, each group developed an option to achieve the policy ends they had identified: Transitioning to a New Normal - the military is in the background and the diplomats are in the foreground. This requires a draw-down of traditional combat military forces and missions, a refined counter-terrorism approach within a regional context, and expands training and advising efforts to non-security entities within the Afghan government by non- DOD elements of the U.S. government. (See page 7 for details.) Security through Multilateral Regional Economic Development - a multilateral regional approach focused on regional economic development as an indirect means to satisfy U.S. national interests.